Elisa Choy ‘the Election Whisperer’ predicted the election using big data and AI.
While the polls were saying Labor landslide for months, then flipped to Morrison was preferred PM, then flipped back to Morrison and Albanese was neck and neck, to Liberal and Labor were neck and neck as two party preferred, the underlying sentiment of Australia was saying something very different.
The fundamental problem with opinion polling is essentially, it’s asking a sample of people for an opinion. We know that when it comes to elections, people are not always going to tell the truth.
In this election, Elisa Choy has been monitoring sentiment of Australia in the lead up to the election, using big data and AI. This unbiased method of ‘listening to the people’, has once again, enabled her to accurately predict the outcome of what was an ‘unpredictable election’.
Dubbed ‘the Election Whisperer’, she made key calls that determined the outcome, which she was saying since week 1, “as a Labor minority government with the help of Greens and Independents or a slim majority”.
Mainstream media in Australia were not willing to run her predictions, instead, opting to go with their own polling, which has turned out, once again to be inaccurate.
By analysing open-source publicly available content on the internet (websites, blogs and social media), she accurately called that there was a Great Disillusionment towards the two major parties, which led to the rise of alternative representatives in parliament – through Independents.
- The rise of the Teal (female) Independents, predicting 7 out of 7 seats (North Sydney, Mackellar, Wentworth, Hughes, Goldstein, Kooyong, Curtin), including the tightly contest seat of Kooyong where Treasurer Josh Frydenberg lost to Dr Monique Ryan
- Predicted winners in seats out of the media spotlight (and polling attention) – 2 out of 2 seats (Fowler NSW to Independent and Brisbane Qld to Greens)
- Predicted 7 out of 11 seats to swing to Labor (with 2 still in contention as at 23 May 11am)
- Predicted up to 19 seats to be lost by the Liberal/Nationals (current count they have lost 23 seats)
Her accuracy was founded on understanding the core issues that mattered to voters:
- First week it was Survival themes, around Cost of Living, Housing Affordability, Unemployment
- By week 4 she picked up on the strong shift in sentiment towards Federal ICAC, Integrity and Climate Change
However, there was an underlying strong negative sentiment towards Mr Morisson, in particular, around Trust and Women that supported the Teal Wave and the swing against the Liberals (who have lost X seats). No mainstream media wanted to run with the story.
She says “if Mr Morrison was not running as leader of the Coalition in this election, opting for Josh Frydenberg who was more liked, then the Liberals could have possibly won this election.”
Her accuracy in predicting the great backlash towards the two major parties, and in particular PM Scott Morrison, was in these key themes, which had the strongest negative sentiment during the campaign (leading to the Great Disillusionment).
It was this last point that Elisa says, seeded the rise of (female) independents that have swung the election. Their key messages around Integrity (in government), Climate Change, and Gender equality resonated loud and clear, all of this was picked up in her data during the course of the election campaign.
It was in understanding what people deeply cared about, through measuring the emotions in the content people were engaging with online, in the privacy of their own digital screens, that Elisa was able to ‘listen’ to the people and deliver the most accurate predictions in this historic election.
When you fail to listen to the people, you fail the people. Voters disengage and you become irrelevant.
Both the Liberals and Labor should be reconsidering how they can remain relevant. The people have spoken loud and clear, which Elisa had reflected in her ‘bold and loud’ predictions.